Predictions on this site are continuously tracked and audited against actual FAA radar landings once flights touch down.
FLIGHT
ROUTE
PREDICTION
ACTUAL OUTCOME
VERDICT
Loading verified flight telemetry...
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MULTI-LEG ROUTE:
BOS
Boston
Scheduled Dep:—
Airline Dep:—
Terminal — • Gate —
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DTW
Detroit
Scheduled Arr:—
Airline Arr:—
Terminal — • Gate —
ON TIME
PREDICTED DELAY RANGE
0–15 MIN
75% Confidence Interval
PREDICTED DEPARTURE
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Delay Prophet Model Forecast
▲ CURRENT DELAY EXTENSION FORECAST
PREDICTED DELAY RANGE
+0 MIN
75% Confidence Interval
PREDICTED DEPARTURE
08:10 PM
Delay Prophet Model Forecast
Airlines incrementally post delays in 15–20 minute increments. Our model forecasts whether inbound aircraft delays, turnaround buffers, or NAS constraints will force this delay to extend further before departure.
PROBABLE DELAY REASONLATE INBOUND AIRCRAFT
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CHANCE OF DELAY (≥15 MIN)
PASSENGER RIGHTS & CAVEATS
PREDICTION SIGNALS
* Weather Severity Index
ACCURACY INFO
Evaluated on millions of real US domestic flights from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). Predictions were tested strictly chronologically against future flights to prove real-world accuracy.
PREDICTION ACCURACY BY DELAY LENGTH
How reliably our machine learning model identifies flights that end up delayed:
≥ 15 MIN DELAYS
82.3%
Accuracy Score
≥ 30 MIN DELAYS
84.1%
Accuracy Score
≥ 60 MIN DELAYS
85.6%
Accuracy Score
≥ 120 MIN DELAYS
86.9%
Accuracy Score
ARE THE PROBABILITY PERCENTAGES HONEST & RELIABLE?
A probability is honest only when "30% chance" really means ~30 out of 100 flights were delayed. Here is how our predicted probabilities compare against real-world flight outcomes: